Until this year. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? 108,000 people. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Twitter Twitter There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Until this year. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. "They followed through the whole four years. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. All Rights Reserved. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. (Go to the bottom of the page. (subject to censorship). All rights reserved. Website Updates Paused That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. 7. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. 2016 Election (1135) The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Their emotions and decision making process are real. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. (i.e. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Read about our approach to external linking. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Trump gave them hope. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. That's 14 in a row. 12. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed.